Sunday, November 6, 2011

MA: Even An Old Blind Small Dog Investor Gets A Bone Once In A While.

I don't share many forecasts, so when I do and they work out right ... well, I feel I need to toot my own horn a little (somebody has to do it!) 

So here's the forecast I put up on Oct 23:
Oct 23 Forecast for Mastercard

The oval near the red timeline is where I thought Mastercard had decent chance of meeting or exceeding.

So here's the picture of MA today, with the same studies, red timeline and the same Oct 23 target oval (more or less, I have obviously not redrawn it precisely the same as before as I am constantly adjusting my personal forecasts) : 
New MA Forecast

MA shot up on earnings straight into my target oval and encountered resistance. This is probably just luck but the direction is right and MA is getting squirrely up here where I thought it might start retreating.

The current seasonal forecast calls for MA to retreat back down to the 345'ish level by the Nov expiration. This same retreat is imprinted on many stocks and averages so I find it credible. The new target oval is 1 week wide, 1 ATR high, is nestled in front of the seasonal dip and just touching the red high probability area. 

Full disclosure: I am currently in a bearish diagonal on MA.

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