Thursday, December 1, 2011

Final 2011 Presidential Cycle Update


Final 2011 Presidential Cycle Update
The year prior to a presidential election year is usually a very bullish year. Presumably this is due to incumbents working the levers of government to make the economy as rosey as possible. What we got was a big divergence from the norm (blue line) to the downside. The blue oval is 1 ATR high and centered on the intersection of the cycle projection anchored on Dec 1 and the year-end. We may yet squeak out a gain for the year but it is somewhat doubtful and I give it something like a 20% chance.

Best.
-Allen

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