here's how i determine whether an equity is on track: i plot a second seasonal projection but anchored on the date ten bars old. here's how i set up the second seasonal projection study - click the edit studies button on the upper tool bar then set the parameters as in the image below:
it is important to set the hpi min pct to some high number to suppress plotting a second hpi indicator which is visually confusing.
afterwards my chart of xrt looks like:
so from this i see that xrt has been closely tracking its season. the season lifts in mid-january and peaks in april. there is about a 62% chance that xrt rises to 70 or higher by april if the seasonality holds. i plan to be buying xrt in the first week of january, if it executes the dip so much the better.