Friday, May 30, 2014

what i see

"trade what you see," is the admonishment i read from many a financial advice column. the tools at thinkorswim and my smalldoginvestor tools are geared for just that. here is the picture i have and outlook for june:
spy $10k seasonal buy and 20 trading day hold,  with projection channels
spy has been on an unseasonal bull run. the purple regression channel takes us up to the top of the blue, longer-term channel by mid-month...provided that the market continues a straight-line march. over the last 10 years, a june 20 trading-day buy & hold on spy has not once been profitable. will 2014 break the streak or conform to the decade-long norm? 

i can't build a case for buying based on proximity to a support level, yet, i can't build a strong case for selling either since we are not close enough to channel resistance levels. volatility levels are way down which takes the benefit out of trading neutral, premium-selling strategies. i feel stymied and have moved 90% to cash. i am trading some new ideas but in extremely small, test-the-water, 1-lots. i will post some of these soon.

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