|spy $10k seasonal buy and 20 trading day hold, with projection channels|
spy has been on an unseasonal bull run. the purple regression channel takes us up to the top of the blue, longer-term channel by mid-month...provided that the market continues a straight-line march. over the last 10 years, a june 20 trading-day buy & hold on spy has not once been profitable. will 2014 break the streak or conform to the decade-long norm?
i can't build a case for buying based on proximity to a support level, yet, i can't build a strong case for selling either since we are not close enough to channel resistance levels. volatility levels are way down which takes the benefit out of trading neutral, premium-selling strategies. i feel stymied and have moved 90% to cash. i am trading some new ideas but in extremely small, test-the-water, 1-lots. i will post some of these soon.