Saturday, February 15, 2020

i noticed something weird about warren buffet's portfolio ...

previously, when i was constructing the berkshire pie, i noticed that warren devotes a goodly portion to very low weighted stock picks. i recently redid this according to the 12/31/2019 13f and after rounding the weightings of everything that could be rounded to at least 1% I have:
so there's 4% of stuff that each have less than .5% weighting in warren's portfolio but these represent 28 of 52 holdings. so the question is what are these smaller holdings and if buffet is buying them maybe they are some picks that you might want to allocate more to. So here's the lower berkshire pie:


NOTE: PERFORMANCE SHOWN IS ONLY SINCE JAN 26, 2020 (FOR SOME REASON M1 NOT SHOWING FULL 1 YEAR RESULT.) this is 3 weeks of performance which if annualized by multiplying by 52/3 is something like 50% return but your mileage may vary!

curiously amzn is one of the lower berk's and is the closest to graduating to the upper berk's. in any case, i have adjusted the weightings to be as close to berkshire's that i can match but theyr'e not exact. AMZN and SIRI got the highest at 8% of lower berkshire while anything under .7% in warren's portfolio is 1% of lower berkshire.

if you want the full berkshire treatment one can combine the upper and lower berkshire pies for the full berkshire effect:
NOTE: PERFORMANCE SHOWN IS ONLY SINCE JAN 26, 2020 (FOR SOME REASON M1 NOT SHOWING FULL 1 YEAR RESULT.) this is 3 weeks of performance, which, if annualized by multiplying by 52/3 is something like 32% return. your mileage may vary!

want to invest like a billionaire? with commission-free, fractional-share investing from m1 finance you can own warren's portfolio for as little as a $100 initial investment and add in increments as little as $10. use any of my pie links to fund a new m1 account and get a $10 reward.

Saturday, February 8, 2020

buy warren buffet's stock picks NOT his stock

i was playing around in m1 finance and created a pie with berkshire hathaway's largest stock holdings in approximately the same weighting as he has and i looked at how he did over the last year:
which was spectacularly good and beats the market performance of 22.8% over the same time frame. but then i wondered if should just buy mr. buffet's company (brk.b) and this is what i discovered:
that's a positive return but way underperforming the market. this is probably due to the fact that mr. buffet hordes cash, so the performance of his stock doesn't match his stock picks. if you want the performance of warren's stock picks buy his stock picks, not his stock.

with commission-free, fractional-share investing from m1 finance you can own warren's portfolio for as little as a $100 initial investment and add in increments as little as $10. use my pie link to fund a new m1 account and get a $10 reward. 

Saturday, February 1, 2020

my m1 portfolio beat the market in january

In January SPY was down a modest .0559% while my M1 Portfolio was up .84% but I think you'll want to know why. Here's the account picture:
The stock assets of this portfolio outperformed the S&P an insignificant tiny smidge but the nonstock 'Safety' assets really saved the month, so much so that this minority portion of the pie more than made up for the losses in the majority slice. This is hedging working at its best to save my, uh, assets. 

So what is in this wonderous 'Safety' pie? Have a gander:
Most of the gains came from treasury bonds (TLT, IEI) the traditional place to park money in a risk-off scenario also gold, GLD. The spanking that commodities (GSG) took, down 12.53% for the month, did not harm the overall performance of the Safety pie. The assets in this pie and the allocations come from the non-stock portions of Ray Dalio's All Weather Portfolio. Thank you Ray.

At this time I am leaving the overall allocations 70% stocks and 30% Safety assets alone. There has been a return to normal volatility last week but the trend is still intact and there's still a couple of months left to stock season. My guess is that the current worries about the new Wuhan Corona Virus and the impeachment trial will simply blow over without much consequence. 

If you want a portfolio like mine here is the share link.  Feel free to mix and match your stock portfolio with the Safety pie. Use that link to fund a new account and you will be rewarded  $10 (alas the Jan promotional rate of $20 has ended.) You can get started for as little as a $100 initial investment and add in increments as small as $10 and M1 will execute commission-free, fractional-share transactions to meet your allocation specifications - really a smalldog's bff.